Aalan

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    • Wed Dec 3rd 10:16 AM
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      Commented on:
      Harvard's Portfolio: Top-Heavy in International ETFs
      I also disagree with the strategy. An individual investor is not an endowment fund. Getting a fat return in 20-30 years is not a viable strategy for most people, though it will work fine for Harvard. Trying to copy an institution like this is bad advice.

      Arguello--"patron states"? "client states"? I haven't heard that terminology since the Cold War. Your economics are reasonable, but maybe you could update your world view.
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    • Sun Nov 30th 12:10 PM
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      Financial Crisis and the Need for Reliable Information
      Agree about the issue. But the government cannot solve it by throwing money at it, as you suggest--that's money that has to be borrowed, which only magnifies the existing problems with leverage; and who will pay it back?
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    • Thu Nov 27th 16:26 PM
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      How I'm Playing the Chinese Rate Cut Rally
      Thanks for the tip on BIDU--I booked a 10% gain in one day. If it corrects back to somewhere in the 120s, I can re-enter for a longer-term trade.

      I also took some APWR off the table earlier this month at 6.25--but I'd like to hear what you think of its medium-term prospects.

      These good tips haven't paid back my losses on the TSL turkey last May, but you are forgiven.
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    • Thu Nov 27th 16:06 PM
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      Rally ETFs: Best Sector Bounces Off the November Bottom
      "And as long as the U.S. government sees fit to purchase preferred shares from banks in exchange for bailout dollars, PFF would benefit the investor with both yield and potential appreciation."

      How so? The yield of PFF's existing holdings is fixed; appreciation of trading value comes when there is widespread confidence in the banks' ability to pay all their obligations. Since it increases the number of shares on which dividends must be paid, government investment is not likely to bring that day closer.
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    • Tue Nov 25th 14:48 PM
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      Markets Punish Dividend Cutters
      If a business is losing cash flow due to market conditions beyond its control, I'd rather it maintain its long-term viability by putting its remaining cash to working more efficiently, rather than cannibalize itself to make stockholders happy for another quarter. If you're only interested in short-term trades, then your response makes sense--but don't blame the business model; that's strictly market-timing.
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    • Tue Nov 25th 14:20 PM
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      Deflation Is Worse Than the CPI Indicates
      CPI has understated inflation for at least 10 years. If it now understates deflation as well, it's a first step toward correcting the accumulated error. Professional economists who rely on published government statistics are wasting their education, and should be ashamed.
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    • Tue Nov 25th 10:26 AM
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      Equity, The Blind Optimist
      Very well said!
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    • Tue Nov 25th 03:35 AM
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      Commented on:
      Why Chinese Land Reform is a Tech Opportunity
      Very well-laid out macro view. But at ground level, what is investible here?
      View article »
    • Sun Nov 23rd 14:42 PM
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      Commented on:
      The Rules on Buybacks Ought to Be Changed for Citigroup
      As of Friday's close (post-rally), there are still 166 stocks in S&P 500 (i.e. 1 in 3) trading below book, the largest being JPM (P/B=.58).

      In the 500, 149 have a float/short ratio over 5%; 72 are trading below book. That's more than a random sample (which would be 1/3 of 149, or 50), but not overwhelming odds. C, however, is not in this group: its short float is only 2.6%

      IOW, there are a lot of cheap blue chip stocks now; a lot of stocks are being heavily shorted; the two measures are only loosely associated. If you graphed the correlation, C would be an outlier, being far more undervalued than its short float can account for.

      Therefore, short-sellers certainly can't be blamed for C's low value. Could it be their record of opaque bookkeeping ?

      (disclosure: no position in C; holding SKF intermittently)
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    • Fri Nov 21st 14:46 PM
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      The Odds in the Financial Sector: Damned If You Do, Damned If You Don't
      Both could be true. SKF could correct today (it's still making new highs as I write) and drop 10%--but that will be no consolation for anyone still holding UYG a day later. You still have to deal with the fundamentals eventually.
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    • Fri Nov 21st 00:51 AM
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      Preferred Dividend ETFs: Shelter from the Storm?
      Thanks for highlighting the difference between the two ETFs; that is useful.

      Every preferred share prospectus I have read specifies a set dividend rate, just like an interest payment on a bond. While most allow for deferred dividend payments, that should only occur under extreme circumstances. So I fail to see how a change in tax policy could affect dividends of existing issues.
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    • Sat Nov 15th 14:23 PM
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      UltraShort ETFs: At a Tipping Point?
      This is inept analysis, IMO. The author is trying to analyze the chart of a _derivative_ without looking at the underlying index. A moment's glance at the $NDX chart eliminates the ambiguity.
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    • Wed Nov 12th 04:43 AM
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      Treasuries and the U.S. Dollar: Twin Bubbles
      We can cut defense spending to levels proportionate to other countries; that would be most of it. But cutting social security and medicare would be madness. Your old, sick parents (grandparents?) will have to move in with you so you can nurse them full-time. You'd better think of another solution.
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    • Fri Oct 31st 12:04 PM
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      Shorting the Long Bond: The Obama Solution Meets China
      I agree with your central thesis, and your article makes good points about China's role. I have also been accumulating TBT for a couple of months because, as you say, the outcome is obvious.

      However, I disagree with your focus on the presidential election. If Obama ends the tax breaks for the rich and stops pouring money into the military contracting toilet, we will be in a better fiscal position than with Bush or McCain. But it won't be enough, so that doesn't matter.
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    • Thu Oct 30th 15:02 PM
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      Ultrashort Emerging Markets Should Come with a Warning Label
      If you are trying to profit from the decline of already-beaten-down EMs, shame on you. EEV is a great cost-effective way to hedge a long position in selected EM stocks or regional funds. Wednesday's EM rally was long overdue, and more of the same should be expected.
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